0427 – Week 10 Rankings

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Barbarian Blog. Did I mention that the Black Angels have nominated their three players? We’ve now gotten nominations from about half of the teams in the BFL which is very nice! Let’s check out the rankings

Computer rankings

1 – Brussels Tigers                + 29.0
2 – Gent Gators                     + 22.3
3 – Waterloo Warriors         + 18.7
4 – Ostend Pirates                + 14.3
5 – Brussels Black Angels    + 13.7
6 – G-D Fighting Turtles     + 11.8
7 – Brussels Bulls                  + 9.2
8 – Liege Monarchs              + 2.0
9 – Leuven Lions                   + 1.6
10 – Puurs Titans                  – 3.5
11 – Izegem Tribes                 – 15.5
12 – Antwerp Diamonds      – 18.2
13 – Limburg Shotguns        – 18.3
14 – Charleroi Coal Miners  – 25.4
15 – Wapi Phoenix                – 41.5

Power rankings

1 (=)       Gent Gators (4-0-0)
2 (=)      Brussels Tigers (3-0-0)
3 (=)      Brussels Black Angels (4-1-0)
4 (=)      Ostend Pirates (2-1-0)
5 (+1)    Waterloo Warriors (2-1-0)
6 (-1)     Brussels Bulls (2-2-0)
7 (=)     Grez-Doiceau Fighting Turtles (3-1-0)
8 (=)     Puurs Titans (2-2-0)
9 (=)      Leuven Lions (2-2-0)
10 (=)    Liege Monarchs (2-1-0)
11 (=)     Izegem Tribes (0-2-1)
12 (=)    Limburg Shotguns (1-3-1)
13 (=)     Antwerp Diamonds (0-4-0)
14 (=)    Charleroi Coal Miners (0-4-0)
15 (=)    Wapi Phoenix (0-3-0)

So the computer favors the Tigers but I still like the Gators. I wonder what the chances are that we get to find out who is more clever at the Belgian Bowl? Speaking of probabilities, (what a segue)

A bit of brute force

If you don’t know what ‘brute force’ means with regards to mathematics, I would usually describe it as “bashing at the numbers with a sledgehammer until something useful falls out”. Thanks to our friend Benoit Lagae and his Monte Carlo simulations, we’ve learned some interesting facts about playoff scenarios, such as :

– No team in the FAFL has been eliminated from playoff contention, although the highest the Diamonds can finish is third
– The Brussels Tigers have already qualified for the playoffs (I kind of suspected this but hadn’t figured it out explicitly yet)
– There is actually a scenario in which five FAFL teams finish the regular season with the exact same record of 6-2. If I combine my computer rankings into this calculation, the chance that this happens is just about 1 in 5500. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen because that would take a month to figure out the tie-breakers!

Mailbag

Someone (I don’t know your name so I can’t put it in) suggested that we present the Barbarians players and coaches at the Belgian Bowl.

I don’t think so. The Belgian Bowl is for the two teams that are playing. Also I have no idea how many Barbarians players and coaches will go to the Belgian Bowl. It would be pretty embarrassing to actually go on stage with like eight players and three coaches.

Kenneth Huyghe, Izegem

“The problem with the punt coverage is that most teams use recievers as gunners instead of safeties or corners that know how to tackle, and they only want to light those returners up”

This is true, most teams just go with their offense for punt coverage. I guess this is because coaches are afraid if they make lots of substitutions they’ll end up with 10 or 12 (or even 9) players on the field and end up wasting all their time outs.

Upcoming

12pm @ Leuven – #13 Antwerp Diamonds (0-4-0) vs #3 Brussels Black Angels (4-1-0)
I said : Black Angels by 27. Computer says : Black Angels by 32

3pm @ Leuven – #1 Gent Gators (4-0-0) vs #9 Leuven Lions (2-2-0)
I said : Gators by 18. Computer says : Gators by 20

12pm @ Puurs – #6 Brussels Bulls (2-2-0) vs #4 Ostend Pirates (2-1-0) : GAME OF THE WEEK
I said : Pirates by 6. Computer says : Pirates by 5

3pm @ Puurs – #11 Izegem Tribes (0-2-1) vs #8 Puurs Titans (2-2-0)
I said : Titans by 13. Computer says : Titans by 12

Outro

So the weather looks like it could be a bit shoddy on Sunday (although it will be warm enough), so don’t be a wussy wussy (like my kids would say), get out there and support your team, whoever they may be! Until next time

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